Alabama, 23 other states gear up for 'Super Tuesday'

Montgomery - Unless something unusual happens, the presidential primaries in Alabama and 23 other states Feb. 5 should seal who will be the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in November.

In less than one month, candidates seeking their party nomination will have been through 10 primaries or caucuses and will have completed the decisive Feb. 5 contests.

After last week's Iowa caucuses, candidates head to various state contests: Tuesday in New Hampshire, Jan. 15 in Michigan, Jan. 19 in Nevada, and Jan. 29 in Florida.

D'Linell Finley, a political science professor at Auburn University-Montgomery, said clear frontrunners may not be identified by Feb. 5, but there won't be much left for any candidate who is not at the front of the pack.

"If you have not established yourself as a viable candidate by Feb. 5, you are going to be in deep trouble," Finley said Friday, a day after Republican Mike Huckabee and Democrat Barack Obama claimed wins in Iowa.

Behind Huckabee was Mitt Romney followed by Fred Thompson and John McCain in a close race for third. On the Democrat side, trailing Obama were John Edwards and Hillary Clinton.

Finley said candidates will need delegates locked up quickly.

"After Feb. 5, this will be over and money is going to be an important key here because you have got to have money to get your message out," Finley said.

Sparks said Clinton's camp has been counting what is being referred to as super-delegates, those who are delegates based on their elected positions and who aren't on ballots for party faithful to choose. It takes 2,182 delegate votes to win nomination.

"You've got to give Obama all the credit in the world," Sparks said. "He worked hard, brought young people out, brought people to the polls that never went."

Alabama moved its traditional June presidential delegate primary to Feb. 5 to be more of a player on the national stage. Because of Mardis Gras on Feb. 5, Baldwin and Mobile counties will vote Jan. 30.

With 23 other states, including New York and California holding primaries Feb. 5, Alabama may not be the player the Legislature envisioned. Some legislators have hinted they might revisit an early primary date because of the expense. It costs several million dollars to hold a primary, at state expense, and there is another in June for state and local elections.

David Lanoue, chairman of the political science department at the University of Alabama, said the best-case scenario is Alabama will be a minor player. "We got bigfooted when California and other states joined," Lanoue said.

On the other hand, he said, if a candidate needs to win a state or two to appear viable, Alabama could be one. "If Mike Huckabee doesn't think he can win coastal states, this will be one of the states he is going to look to," Lanoue said.

Spokespersons for candidates say Iowa will not change their strategies leading up to Alabama because Iowa was only one small state.

John Paul Weber, a Tuscaloosa attorney who volunteers for the Obama campaign, said Obama is a candidate of hope.

"We have not taken the path down the straight and narrow," Weber said of American politics in general. "We've become involved in partisan politics and have become too divisive and too bitter. We are not speaking with one voice, and I think Barack Obama represents the possibility to bring us to a consensus ... I think a great many people - Republicans, Democrats, independents - will see something in there that grabs them."

Lanoue said Obama has an excellent chance to win the South Carolina and Alabama Democratic primaries because many party voters are black.

Finley said additional Obama wins will dispel the notion that a black can't win national election and could propel other black voters into his camp, making him a formidable Democratic challenger.

Becky Nichols, a Clinton volunteer, said a clearer picture of Clinton's appeal will emerge from Tuesday's New Hampshire primary.

"She hit the road running in New Hampshire and is gearing up for Super Tuesday states and Alabama is one of them," Nichols said.

Clinton remains the front-running Democrat.

"Iowa's so tempting to start charting the rest of the campaign, but Hillary Clinton still has the name recognition; she has the Clinton name and the organization," Lanoue said. "The lights are just now starting to shine on Barack Obama."

Alabama state Treasurer Kay Ivey, a co-chair of Romney's campaign in the state, said Romney's Iowa second-place thrilled her.

"Here's a guy, Mitt Romney, not known by anyone anywhere who rose to second place," Ivey said. "In his own words, 'we always go for the gold but we got the silver.' "

Secretary of State Beth Chapman said it's difficult to predict the primary turnout in Alabama because the early vote is unprecedented in modern times.

"There are two separate ideas, and one is there's a certain level of apathy where people will wait for the general election," she said. "The second idea, which I like a whole lot better, is that because this is a historic election, people will be energized, enthused and will get out and vote."

Dana Beyerle can be reached at (334) 264-6605.