Price prediction

Debera Cozart, of Florence, is skeptical about the price of gas going down any time soon.

While stopping to fill up one afternoon, Cozart lamented about the ways gas prices have affected her recently.

"I can't drive anywhere anymore. I just go where I need to go, and that's it," she said.

Cozart said her vehicle doesn't get great gas mileage, but to help with the cost of constantly filling her tank, she usually tries to get regular grade fuel at the best prices she can find.

Cozart isn't the only driver affected by the rising cost of fuel.

Gas prices have been an issue of concern across the nation, and predictions are that gasoline is going to continue to be offered at premium prices throughout 2008.

Peter Clark, associate professor of chemical and biological engineering at the University of Alabama, predicts that gas prices will remain above $2.50 throughout the year because of the high price of crude oil, the declining value of the dollar and other factors, such as international conflicts.

"The whole thing, I think, rests on what the state of the world is at any given moment," Clark said. "I know there's a great deal of unrest in West Africa and the Delta Region in Nigeria where they produce the oil."

The recent conflicts in the Middle East have also prevented the price of oil from going down, Clark said.

Typically, the price of gas is usually at its lowest for the year in January and February, said Clay Ingram, public relations and marketing manager with AAA in Birmingham.

"Most people aren't traveling this time of year because it's cold outside or they're caught up on their traveling from the holidays. We use a minimal amount of gasoline during January and February," he said.

Because prices are so high now at the beginning of the year, this could be a signal that prices for the rest of the year won't look quite as appealing as have in years past.

"Wherever we are in January or February, that will be our starting point with no where to go but up. That's a bit concerning," Ingram said.

In mid-January 2007, the Alabama average price of regular gasoline dropped as low as $2.06 per gallon. The current state average this year, so far, has lingered around the $3 mark.

"I do think we're looking at higher gas prices in the spring," Clark said.

One reason for the higher prices is that in the spring months, the oil refineries shut down for maintenance, which tends to affect supply, he said.

"In the last few years, that has resulted in surges in prices," he said.

Both supply and demand affect the price of gas, especially when Americans use 400 million gallons of gasoline a day, Clark said.

Meanwhile, gas prices don't appear to have affected most drivers' routines. Ingram said there was actually a 1.5 percent increase in gas consumption for 2007 in the United States over the year before.

"Right now, the average person on the street is saying this is about what we paid during the summer," Ingram said. "Most people don't remember that this time last year, we were at about $2.22 a gallon, and we're all kind of adjusting to these higher gas prices."

Deciding to change driving habits instead of adjusting, however, is one of the ways to help the prices decrease.

"Once it does start getting up over $3 a gallon and see that it's getting higher and higher, I think we'll start to see some really concentrated efforts around the country of people conserving fuel or looking for other ways to get their kids to school and get themselves to work," Ingram said.

Another option is to look at alternative fuels like biodiesel and ethanol.

"The higher the prices go, the more pressure there is from the population to find some alternative fuel source," Ingram said.

Clark Midkiff, professor of mechanical engineering and director of the University of Alabama's Center for Advanced Vehicle Technologies, said that in 2008, the United States is expected to produce more than 500,000 barrels of ethanol per day.

One of the big challenges for biofuels, however, is switching to nonfood crops as its primary feedstock, Midkiff said, but biofuels may become that key alternative to gasoline.

"I really think that with this latest surge in oil prices, there's a growing acceptance that oil and gas prices will be high for the unforeseeable future," he said.

Clark said he is somewhat hesitant to say that biofuels would be the best alternative to gasoline.

"Biofuels help lower our imports and that then lowers the pressure on our price of oil, but they aren't particularly economic," Clark said. "They're strategic in a more environmentally-sound way, but not economically."

As a result of the high gasoline prices, some drivers have also looked toward purchasing more fuel efficient vehicles, such as compact vehicles, hybrids and diesels, Midkiff said.

"Alabamians tend to drive fairly long distances when you drive to work. You could save several dollars a day by having a smaller car or a diesel car or a hybrid," he said.

Clark said one of the quickest ways to lessen gasoline consumption is to conserve usage by at least 5 percent.

"That puts over a million barrels of oil back on the world market," he said.

Ingram suggested even doing small things such as shopping around for the least expensive place to fuel up.

Ingram said conservation is something that drivers have gotten away from over the years, but making an effort to conserve could make a world of difference.

"In years past, going back in the '90s, '80s and '70s, when gas prices started to go up a little bit, people would immediately cut back their driving, and the big gas companies started seeing that and brought it back down and people would start driving again," he said.

Kenda Williams can be reached at 740-5720 or kenda.williams@timesdaily.com.