Poll: Obama, McCain ahead in Alabama

MONTGOMERY - A poll released Wednesday shows Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain leading in Alabama's presidential primaries, but winning Tuesday may be determined by supporters of candidates who have dropped out.

"This is so complex; it's like swimming in the Gulf with an undertow, there are so many cross currents," said Gerald Johnson, director of Capital Survey Research Center, the polling arm of the Alabama Education Association. "It's truly historic."

The poll shows Obama, a U.S. senator from Illinois, leading U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, of New York, 40 percent to 35 percent in the Democratic primary. Former U.S. Sen. John Edwards, of North Carolina, who has dropped out of the race, was a distant third at 9 percent.

Obama's support among black voters grew from the poll three weeks ago when he had 54 percent of the black vote.

The poll that ended Tuesday gave Obama 68 percent of the black vote, while Clinton's black vote dropped from 20 percent Jan. 8 to 16 percent.

Among white Democrats, Clinton's white vote grew from 47 percent three weeks ago to 51 percent. Obama's white vote has stayed at about 17 percent.

The undecided Democratic vote is 16 percent and the margin of error, based on a sample of 373 voters, is plus or minus 5 percentage points, meaning Obama and Clinton could be tied.

McCain, a Republican U.S. senator from Arizona, had 28 percent in the GOP primary. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee had 24 percent.

Three weeks ago, McCain had 25 percent in Alabama to Huckabee's 32 percent.

Former Massachusetts Republican Gov. Mitt Romney polled 15 percent, while former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani polled 9 percent. Another 25 percent said they had other choices or were undecided.

Giuliani also ended his quest for the nomination Wednesday. Their names along with former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson and other candidates who have withdrawn will still be on Tuesday's ballots.

The sample of 397 Republican voters has an error margin of just under 5 percentage points, which means the Republican primary also could be very close.

Romney's goal in Alabama is to get at least 20 percent or he won't get any delegates. Anyone who gets at least 50 percent gets all delegates.

In the Democratic primary, a candidate must get at least 15 percent of the vote in a congressional district to earn a delegate.

Obama's lead has been gathering momentum, but the Clinton-Obama battle could be determined by voters who supported other candidates, if they go to the polls.

David Lanoue, chairman of the political science department at the University of Alabama, said it's going to be hard to sit this primary out even if your candidate isn't on the ballot.

"I think they'll vote because it's a pretty exciting campaign," Lanoue said. "If you were a strong supporter (of someone else), you still want to be part of the action."

Jim Smith, chairman of the Tuscaloosa County Democratic Party and an Edwards supporter, said he doesn't know who Edwards voters will turn to.

"For some of us it's a dilemma," Smith said. "I had a candidate to vote for and now I don't."

State Rep. Mary Sue McClurkin, R-Pelham, a Huckabee co-chair in Alabama, said she hopes Huckabee gets Giuliani and Thompson votes. She said Huckabee wants to win Alabama, but "we certainly will take" second.

"There is a chance the nominee could be decided at the convention," she said.

Dana Beyerle can be reached at (334) 264-6605 or dtb123@aol.com.