Could Alabama be major player in election?

MONTGOMERY - If presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama show up in Alabama between now and the November election, it probably will be to raise money, political analysts said Monday.

With 96 days until Nov. 4, both Republican McCain and Democrat Obama will spend precious time and money in nearly two dozen toss-up states, but not here.

It's because Alabama has not voted for a Democrat presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter won in 1976.

U.S. Rep. Artur Davis, D-Birmingham, is chairman of the Obama campaign in Alabama. He said Obama will spend his resources in toss-up sates.

"As a practical matter, this is a difficult state for a national Democrat," Davis said.

Larry Sabato, chairman of political science and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said if Alabama "vaguely is in question, we know which way the election will go, but it's not in question" for McCain.

Any visits "would have to be fundraising or party building," he said.

Campaign spokespersons said since candidate schedules have not been drawn up far in advance, there's no way to tell whether either will be in Alabama. McCain is attending an event in Panama City, Fla., on Friday night.

That's not to say that a grassroots Obama campaign won't happen to try to help congressional candidates.

"If you get down near the end of the campaign and Obama's people are feeling confident, it's not that Obama will carry the state but it will be designed to energize African-American votes for members running for Congress," said Jess Brown, a political science professor at Athens State University.

Auburn University Montgomery political science professor D'Linell Finley said if Obama or McCain shows up in Alabama, it would be for in-and-out fundraisers or on a stopover to somewhere else.

"McCain coming to this state would be to confirm his support," Finley said.

University of Alabama political science department chairman David Lanoue said Alabama isn't going to be in play except for fundraising.

"If (Obama) starts building up a big lead, he might show up to drag a few congressional seats with him," Lanoue said. "It he builds up a big lead, McCain might do same thing."

If McCain, a U.S. senator from Arizona, shows up in Alabama purely to campaign, then he's probably in trouble electorally not only in Alabama but also the usually red-state South.

"We're optimistic about Alabama but not taking it for granted," said U.S. Rep. Spencer Bachus, R-Vestavia Hills, McCain's southeast coordinator.

Dana Beyerle can be reached at (334) 264=6605 or dtb12345@aol.com.