Census: Housing stagnates, poverty rises in Shoals

The U.S. Census today released a demographic snapshot of small communities with 20,000 or more residents, the first update since the 2000 Census.

The American Community Survey averaged together three years of responses across the U.S. taken between 2005 and 2007 that allowed the Census to produce population estimates of population as small as 20,000 people. The survey results covered Lauderdale and Colbert counties along with the Florence/Muscle Shoals metropolitan statistical area.

"Communities are no longer limited to a once-a-decade look at their population's characteristics," stated Census Bureau Director Steve H. Murdock in a press release.

"The (American Community Survey's) multiyear data will allow small towns and communities to track how they are changing on an ongoing basis."

The data are distinguished from the U.S. Census taken every 10 years in that they represent an average over three years in different surveys.

"Construction of new housing units has slowed to a crawl in Florence this decade," according to an initial analysis from Annette Jones Watters, director of the Alabama State Data Center at the University of Alabama. Watters responded to questions about the data via e-mail.

"There was a housing boom in Florence in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s," Watters said. "Construction slowed a bit in the 1980s and 1990s. Noticeably fewer were built in the early 2000s. From 2005 through now, new housing starts have been at a very low ebb."

The data showed:

n Houses built in 2005 or later: 925.

n Houses built between 2000 to 2004: 4,061.

n Houses built between 1990 to 1999: 13,115.

The trend comes at a time when the number of single-person households is on the rise.

"Some of these are college kids living by themselves, but a good number are adults not associated with the college, including more and more people over the age of 65 who are living alone," Watters said.

"The two primary things that are driving the single households are women outliving men and divorce," said Lary Cowart, assistant professor of real estate at the University of Alabama at Birmingham.

"College towns don't lead to single-person households - I don't see many college students going to school and living alone - other than a dorm."

Watters said the trend has implications for the housing market.

"Smaller households mean more people looking for smaller places to live, such as condos, garden homes, townhouses and nice apartments," she said. "Demand is lessening for multi-bedroom houses with a big yard for the kids and dogs."

The data also showed that since 2005, a quarter of the region's housing units have changed occupants.

On the other side of the spectrum, almost one third of occupants have stayed in the same house since at least 1989, many living in their present home for longer, Watters said.

"Many people in Florence seem to be happy to stay in the same house a long time," Watters said.

The data also show that the region has significant levels of poverty.

"There is more poverty in Florence these days. About 19 percent of all families are living in poverty, but the kind of family makes a big difference," she said.

Among the findings:

n 34 percent of families with children are in poverty.

n 53 percent of families where the oldest child is 5 years old or younger are in poverty.

n 58 percent of single-mother families are in poverty.

n 82 percent of single-mother families where the oldest child is age 5 years or younger are in poverty.

"These percentages are much higher than the same statistics for Florence in the 2000 Census," Watters said. "Single motherhood is a huge predictor of poverty. Nearly all children who are born to an unmarried mother will spend at least part of their childhood living below the poverty line."

Watters said there are caveats with the data, including margins of error that can give the dataset large ranges. For example, the number of households in the Shoals was 58,668 plus or minus 1,028, which means the households ranged from 57,640 to 59,696. The margins of error and the averaged data can complicate analysis.

"I haven't exactly decided how to do the analysis so it's accurate and revealing," Watters said. "This is not simple stuff."

Trevor Stokes can be reached at 740-5728 or trevor.stokes@TimesDaily.com