Despite experts, grab the umbrella

It's a matter of perspective.

"I don't think we can (fill in the blank with any activity that requires being outside for any length of time)," I tell my husband. "There's a 40 percent chance of rain, so that means we'll get wet."

In that are-we-really-

having-this-discussion-again tone of voice, my husband sighs patiently and says, "No, it doesn't. Forty percent means we've got less than half a chance of getting rained on, so don't worry."

Easy for him to say. But what does "percent of rain" mean, anyway? If it's "40 percent," is there a 40 percent chance I'll get wet wherever I am that day? Does it mean 40 percent of the places I'll be will see rain? Or does it mean it's going to rain 40 percent of the day?

Of course, I focus on the "40" part because I'm a mom. I'm worried about who's driving in the rain and whose ballgame might get canceled. A internal alarm-system activates whenever bad weather threatens.

My husband, on the other hand, is a weather optimist. He believes "40 percent chance of rain" means it might rain somewhere sometime perhaps but it's no big deal.

As I said, it comes down to perspective. But after the umpteenth discussion on this topic, my husband got tired of trying to convince me he was right.

"Ask the experts," he said.

So I did. And Spencer Denton, Newschannel 19 meteorologist, confirmed I was right - at least about being confused.

"Percentages in a forecast are misunderstood by the general public and often misinterpreted," Denton said. "Ninety percent refers to the coverage area - 90 percent of the area will see rain at some point during a given period of time. It doesn't mean it will rain all day or night nor does it refer to the intensity of the rainfall."

A forecast of a 20 percent chance of a shower or storm means four out of five communities will not see rain or storms, he added.

"But if an isolated storm or a few storms develop over Madison County (highest population density in north Alabama) and it storms for a long period of time, then most viewers think you missed it badly because you only said 20 percent," he said. "But if the rest of the area stayed dry, then you actually nailed the forecast."

Denton said he likes to use words instead of percentages: "Slight chance" for

20 percent, "isolated" for

30 percent, "scattered" for

50 percent and "likely" for

80 percent.

I guess maybe my husband might have been right.

But I'm still grabbing the umbrella at anything above

0 percent.

Cathy Wood is a freelance writer living in the Shoals. For more from her, visit TimesDaily.com.